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	DPP    Functions    Flow Chart    Units    Activity Reports    Human Resources    Public Tenders Whats New News Events    Events Scheduled    Events Occurred Legislation Data Bases    Historical Archives    ECONOS    CRONOL Publications    Periodicals    Electronic Publications    Studies and Reports Horizon Scanning    Presentation    Scanning DB    Scanning Docs Newsletter Links Contacts _ Advanced Search Wednesday, 08 de September de 2010 You are here:  Studies and Reports Studies and Reports 2010 [More +] Regions in Transition. Urban System of Coastal Centro Region 2030     [More +] Este estudo insere-se no projecto em curso no DPP “Territórios em Transformação”, de desenvolvimento de aplicações de Prospectiva Territorial a regiões de Portugal. O Sistema Urbano do Litoral da Região Centro (SULRC) – Leiria, Coimbra, Aveiro e Viseu – foi escolhido como a segunda região a ser abordada. Detém uma posição estratégica de charneira entre o Norte e Lisboa e entre o Litoral português e a Espanha, sendo muito diversificado em termos de recursos naturais endógenos, de estrutura económica e de distribuição da população, o que poderia aparentemente traduzir-se em maior dinamismo demográfico, urbano e económico. O estudo começa por fazer um diagnóstico da situação actual das NUTS III que constituem o SULRC e uma síntese sobre as Visões institucionais no horizonte 2015, presentes em vários documentos oficiais ou preparados para entidades públicas. Em seguida, faz-se um levantamento do conjunto de projectos de investimento em infra-estruturas e em novas actividades ou segmentos de negócios (em curso, já aprovados ou em discussão). É a partir deste trabalho prévio que são elaborados quatro cenários contrastados num horizonte de longo prazo (2030), os quais permitem analisar os Factores que podem determinar as evoluções possíveis deste sistema urbano. Download:     29135.31 Kb Eco-industries and Eco-inovation in Portugal. A Brief Retrospective Analysis 1995-2008     [More +] This document is the first of a new Series under the title “For a more decarbonized economy”, considered relevant to initialize by DPP. The objective is to deepen a line of study of possible paths for a “greener” growth. Considering that this approach requires, in the first place, the identification of the starting point, the present document makes a retrospective analysis of the eco-industries in Portugal, during the period between 1995 and 2008. Download:     618.75 Kb 2009 [More +] Regions in Transition. Alentejo 2030     [More +] This is the first study of a new collection edited by DPP oriented to regional foresight studies. This one is about Alentejo, a southern region of Portugal in which are planned or announced big investments in tourism, agriculture and logistics (ports and rail). The study begins with a detailed diagnostic of economic, social, environmental and knowledge trends. Afterwards are analysed the main official documents recently published that define desirable evolutions in a broad ensemble of domains and described the investments – public and private that were approved or announced before the present financial and economic crisis. The final section is dedicated to the construction of four Scenarios for the development of Alentejo in the 2030 Horizon. Download:     33693.54 Kb Composite Indicator of Regional Development     [More +] The construction of a composite indicator of development is the result of the partnership between Statistics Portugal and Department of Foresight and Planning and International Affairs (DPP), taking advantage of the expertise of both institutions in the field of statistics and territorial analysis. It aims to making available a tool that can support the context analysis of public policies being of territorial nature or other policies with different territorial impact, while making it possible to synthesise regional development with its different strands. It would also serve as a tool for several actors with an interest in territorial matters. Download:     5524.69 Kb A Multisectoral Model for Portugal with a Multiregional Extension     [More +] This paper presents an input-output based model for Portugal (MODEM 6A), designed for policy and demand shocks evaluation. The model considers 59 industries and it is calibrated for each year on the basis of existing systems of input-output tables and other data from National Accounts or of projected scenarios for Portugal. The model allows the simulation of the impact of demand and income shocks on global and sectoral output, imports, and employment as well as on fiscal variables, disposable income and private consumption. The model has a multiregional extension allowing the breakdown of national impacts by seven Portuguese regions. A fiscal policy rule may be included in the model simulations, allowing the evaluation of public expenditure programs with no deterioration of public deficit. Download:     287.49 Kb Building a System of Symmetric Input-Output Tables – Application to Portugal, 2005     [More +] This paper describes the methodology used to build a complete system of symmetric input-output tables for Portugal, 2005 (product-by-product, using P60 ESA95 nomenclature) starting from supply and use tables (product-by-industry). A simple method of symmetrization is proposed, inspired in the product technology assumption but with no negative values. Download:     258.44 Kb Energy Demand Scenarios – a Quantified Exercise for the case of Transports and Domestic Mobility     [More +] Energy demand simulation models applied to final consumption sectors enables to analyze the effects of alternative socio economic, technological and behavior scenarios on energy demand and CO2 emissions. This paper presents a quantified exercise for the case of the transports sector and domestic mobility, considering two contrasting socio economic scenarios for Portugal in the pos-Kyoto period, in 2020: Trend Scenario and Change Scenario. Download:     494.3 Kb Tourism and Climate Change – An Open Question     [More +] This document intends to be a first contribution to the analysis of adaptation policies that might reduce the vulnerability of this sector whose actual importance in the Portuguese productive structure is high and is foreseen to increase in a near future. The aspects analyzed refer to the direct and indirect impacts that climate change may have on either tourism demand or tourism supply, (namely on estate infrastructures). Download:     7565.22 Kb Economic Convergence of Portuguese Regions – 1995-2006     [More +] This study aims to analyze the economic convergence between regions (NUTS II and NUTS III) in view of the individual behavior of each territory: closeness to or distance from the average of a national level indicator in periods from 1995 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2006, for dimensional indicators (density of GVA and employment) and quality indicators (productivity and GVA per capita). Finding a typology of behavior based on the relationship between the growth differentials of GVA, population and employment as explanatory elements of GVA per capita and productivity, in volume, is another target of this analysis. Download:     9754.76 Kb Cohesion Policy Beyond 2013     [More +] The objective of this article is to analyse and understand, as much as possible, which are the present major positions of the EU States, as well as their main goals about the future negotiations post-2013. It begins with a brief historical evolution of the Cohesion Policy, in parallel with European Union integration process. The second part contains a synthesis about the main moments of the Debate about the Cohesion Policy Future. In the final part, a prospective and qualitative diagnosis of the several actors involved in the process is presented. Download:     365.59 Kb A System of Input-Output Tables for Portugal, 2005, with disaggregation of the Natural Gas Sector     [More +] This paper presents a system of symmetric input-output tables (product by product) built for Portugal, 2005, with disaggregation of the Natural Gas sector. The methodology used is similar to the one adopted for the I-O system for 2005 published by DPP in 2008, where that sector is not autonomised. The present system considers 60 products and it was built (as the previous one) on the basis of supply and use detailed tables (product by industry) and other data supplied by the Portuguese Statistical Institute (INE). The system includes tables for total flows at purchaser and at basic prices, national production, imports, trade and transport margins, import duties, VAT, other taxes and subsidies on products. The separation of the Natural Gas sector from the Crude Oil and the Electricity sectors was implemented to meet the needs for impact evaluation of environmental policies, given the different effect of these products on greenhouse gas emissions. Download:     1249.53 Kb Economic Activities and Environmental Pressures – An Analisys from NAMEA Accounts     [More +] In the national and international frameworks, decision-making towards sustainable development requires the knowledge of the interrelationships linking economic activities to the environment. This document presents the results of an approach to the relationship between productive structure and environment in Portugal. The analysis uses the NAMEA and National Accounts aggregates and focuses on the emissions of greenhouse and acidifying gases directly linked to productive activities. Download:     3328.81 Kb "Integrated System for Performance Assessment in Public Administration 1” in MAOT – Monitoring and Self-Assessment Guide (update version of December 2009)     [More +] This Monitoring and Self-Assessment Guide (GMA) aims to systematize information on the SIADAP1 scattered in various sources (legislation and technical guidance of the CCAS, DGAEP, IGF, etc.), as well as the result of the evaluation made by DPP of the application of SIADAP1 in his first two years of operation. Download:     1184.64 Kb Territorial Dynamics of Growth, 1995-2006     [More +] Following a study on the economic territorial convergence, this working paper is concerned with the sector dynamics of the economic growth of Portuguese territories. For that purpose a set of activities classifications is used to encompass the nature of products, the technological contents of manufactures and the knowledge contents of services, the tradability of the products and the competitiveness factors of manufactures. The most important sectors for regional economic growth and the regions and pairs of sector and region that were the most important for sectoral and national economic growth, are identified and their contributions to growth are explained with employment and productivity growth. The study concerns two different periods: 1995-2000 which was a period of sustained growth, and 2000-2006 which was a period of slowdown and economic distress. Download:     2307.15 Kb Economic Activities and Environmental Pressures – An Analisys from Material Flows Accounts     [More +] A wide range of approaches deal with the interaction between economic growth and pressures on the environment, with a special focus on the decoupling issue. This document is an assessment of the resource and material flows on the Portuguese economy. Based on data from the Eurostat, it focuses on the overall characteristics and efficiency of resource use by the Portuguese economy, within the context of the European Union. Download:     1095.23 Kb Simulation Model for End-use Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions 2020. Methodology and Scenario Results. Module 4 – Industrial Sector     [More +] This research work presents the methodology and scenario results from the building and application of a quantitative energy demand and CO2 emissions model for the Portuguese industrial sector, including agriculture and fishing and construction. It is part of a set of four studies designed for the end-use sectors of the Portuguese economy, in the time horizon 2020. The methodology is based on the MEDEE model, and enables the effects evaluation of alternative socio-economic, technological, behavioral, and policy measures scenarios in the energy demand and CO2 emissions in the industrial sector. Download:     673.33 Kb Simulation Model for End-use Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions 2020. Methodology and Scenario Results. Module 3 – Transports Sector     [More +] This research work presents the methodology and scenario results from the building and application of a quantitative energy demand and CO2 emissions model for the Portuguese transports sector. It is part of a set of four studies designed for the end-use sectors of the Portuguese economy, in the time horizon 2020. The methodology is based on the MEDEE model, and enables the effects evaluation of alternative socio-economic, technological, behavioral, and policy measures scenarios in the energy demand and CO2 emissions in the transports sector. Download:     778.73 Kb Simulation Model for End-use Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions 2020. Methodology and Scenario Results. Module 2 – Services Sector     [More +] This research work presents the methodology and scenario results from the building and application of a quantitative energy demand and CO2 emissions model for the Portuguese services sector, detailing the tourism sub-sector. It is part of a set of four studies designed for the end-use sectors of the Portuguese economy, in the time horizon 2020. The methodology is based on the MEDEE model, and enables the effects evaluation of alternative socio-economic, technological, behavioral, and policy measures scenarios in the energy demand and CO2 emissions in the services sector. Download:     929.75 Kb Simulation Model for End-use Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions 2020. Methodology and Scenario Results. Module 1 – Residential Sector     [More +] This research work presents the methodology and scenario results from the building and application of a quantitative energy demand and CO2 emissions model for the Portuguese residential sector. It is part of a set of four studies designed for the end-use sectors of the Portuguese economy, in the time horizon 2020. The methodology is based on the MEDEE model, and enables the effects evaluation of alternative socio-economic, technological, behavioral, and policy measures scenarios in the energy demand and CO2 emissions in the residential sector. Download:     541.92 Kb Tradable Services in the Portuguese Economy     [More +] This document analyses the evolution of tradable services in Portugal, including their degree of internationalization, in a dynamic context of globalization of the economies worldwide and of increasing share of the services sector in the Portuguese economy. The remarkable progress achieved in the Information and Communication Technologies allowed many services to become tradable, which is reflected in a continuing increase of the international trade in services. Download:     358.14 Kb Railway Network Conectivity between Portugal Centre Region and the Castilla-and-León: a Territorial Foresight Approach     [More +] The present work aims at focusing on the future developments of the rail mode accessibility as well as its possible impacts, between the Portuguese Centro Region, and the neighbour Spanish Comunidad Autonoma de Castilla-y-León. Sharing a common boundary, these territories are essential parts of a future common geo-economic space in the first half of the present 21st century, in which existing and intensifying functional relations, are joined by the appearance of new ones, calling for a greater role of sustainable mobility, where the rail mode emerges as a key player, for the conveyance of both freight and passenger traffic. Download:     4465.42 Kb 2008 [More +] Cities Policy – POLIS XXI. Urban Networks for Competitiveness and Innovation. Reasons to cooperate, Ideas to explore     [More +] The Policy Instrument “Urban Networks for Competitiveness and Innovation” tries to stimulate Portuguese cities to establish networks between them, involving multiple urban stakeholders, for the purpose of creating synergies for the implementation of strategic programmes aimed at fostering competitiveness – based on innovation drivers – of the respective territories in the global economy. This document, through a brief systematisation of concepts and factors of competitiveness, attractiveness and innovation, aims to present a set of ideas on networking and projects grouped into five types of urban networks. Download:     255.65 Kb Estimation of the Integrated System of Input-output Tables for Portugal from 2000 to 2004, at 1999 prices     [More +] Download:     2298.7 Kb PROVERE. Programme for the Economic Enhancement of Endogenous Resources. From Ideas to Action: Vision and Partnerships     [More +] The PROVERE are a policy instrument specifically directed at “low density” areas. The core objective of the PROVERE is to foster competitiveness through the galvanization of economic base activities (goods and services), which are innovative and based on the enhancement of endogenous resources. These interventions must be sustainable and be concerned with generating effects that extend into other activities (multiplier effect), thus contributing to the creation of conditions for population settlement and renewal. Download:     1416.22 Kb Systems and Foresight – A Brief Introduction     [More +] This working paper explores the contribution that Systems Thinking brings to Foresight Studies. It begins by a brief overview of basic concepts in System Analysis exploiting the meaning of Structure in this context. After this it presents the approach of Systems Dynamics and presents some of the most common Archetypes that can be found in the dynamic of systems, which can be very useful to the making of Scenarios. Finnaly it presents the possible utilisation of System Analysis in an approach included in the French foresight school. Download:     721.14 Kb Software and Computer Services in Portugal     [More +] Download:     4067.1 Kb Energy: Geoeconomy and Technology – a Foresight Exercise     [More +] This working paper brings together three different perspectives on the future of the world energy system. The first one identifies the main functions and actors in the world oil and gas sector, indicates some of the actual objectives of each of these actors and build four different scenarios of the evolution of the energy system from a geo economic perspective. The second text tries to identify the different families of technologies that can be seen as having potential to reduce tensions in growth, security and sustainability that are preset today in the energy sector worldwide and build four different scenarios of technology development. The third text points to the fact that the new international regime on climate change mitigation pos-Kyoto must address not only the reduction of emissions but above all the incentive system to develop a new set of technologies that can in the long term reduce emissions without reducing growth perspectives worldwide. Download:     844.46 Kb Scenarios for the New Lisbon Airport – Horizon 2050     [More +] Download:     2422.78 Kb Evaluation Methodologies of Economic Impacts of Environmental Policies     [More +] Download:     192.21 Kb A Debate about the Future of the European Union Budget (expenditure side) – Scanning the Contextual Environment     [More +] Download:     525.41 Kb Integrated System of Input-output Tables for Portugal, 2005     [More +] This paper presents the methodology and results of building an integrated system of symmetric input-output tables for Portugal, 2005. It is a product by product system (using P60 National Accounts’ nomenclature) developed from supply and use detailed tables (product by industry) and other data supplied by the Portuguese Statistical Institute (INE). The system includes tables for total flows at purchaser and at basic prices, national production, imports, trade and transport margins, import duties, VAT, other taxes and subsidies on products. This system was built with purpose of updating coefficients for MODEM, an input-output based model developed in DPP for policy evaluation. Download:     1049.68 Kb "Integrated System for Performance Assessment in Public Administration 1” in MAOTDR – 2008 Report     [More +] Relatório de validação dos QUAR de 2008 dos serviços do MAOTDR, realizada pelo DPP no âmbito das suas atribuições. Download:     2757.41 Kb MODEM 6 – A Multisectoral Model for the Portuguese Economy with a Multiregional Extension     [More +] This paper presents the latest version (developed in 2008) of the input-output based model MODEM, which has been used by DPP to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of large undertakings, such as the implementation, in Portugal, of the Community Support Frameworks. This version considers 59 industries (P60 from ESA95) and it was calibrated on the basis of a system of input-output tables for Portugal, 2005. The model allows the simulation of demand and income exogenous changes on global and sectoral output, imports, and employment as well as on fiscal variables, disposable income and private consumption. The model has a multiregional extension which allows the breakdown of national impacts by the seven Portuguese regions (NUTS II) whenever the exogenous shocks are regionalised. There is an option of including a fiscal policy rule in the model, which allows the evaluation of public expenditure programmes without deterioration of public deficit, the adjustment being made through the change in the tax rate on household income. Download:     207.12 Kb Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy in the Post-Kyoto World     [More +] During the preparatory works for the discussion of burden sharing of the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between the Member States of the European Union the Department of Foresight, Planning and International Affairs (DPP) has had a partnership with the Faculty of Sciences and Technology (FCT) of Universidade Nova de Lisboa (UNL) [“Nova” Lisbon University] team, headed by Professor Júlia Seixas, to develop Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy in the 2020 Horizon, which could give inputs to the TIMES model implemented by that unit and used to define the impacts in terms of GEE´s emission of diferente evolutions of the Portuguese economy. The Scenarios that were developed by DPP – which are presented in this paper – defined different developments in several macro sectors of the Portuguese economy namely those that are linked with the geoeconomic functions of Portugal in Europe, those that are associated to different urban dynamics in the country and those that are more directly linked to distinct answers to the costs and opportunities opened by the policies that aim to reduce GEE`s emissions. Two very different Scenarios were chosen, developed and quantified, and a third one, which could be defined as a hybrid was only defined in qualitative terms. With the inputs given by these Scenarios the team of FCT/UNL has been able to calculate the level of GEE´s emissions and the impacts of different reduction targets for these emissions. Download:     625.13 Kb "Integrated System for Performance Assessment in Public Administration 1” in MAOTDR – Monitoring and Self-assessment Guide     [More +] O presente Guião de Monitorização e Auto-avaliação (GMA) pretende sistematizar informação referente ao SIADAP 1 dispersa em diversas fontes (legislação e orientações técnicas do CCAS, DGAEP, IGF, entre outros), sendo, igualmente, sugeridos diversos instrumentos de apoio que deverão ser implementados na medida em que os serviços destinatários entendam por adequados. Download:     3916.64 Kb DPP Portugal Profiles. 1 – External Framework and Strategic Challenges     [More +] Os DPP Portugal Profiles constituem uma contribuição do DPP para o Grupo de Trabalho responsável por reflectir sobre as possibilidades de evolução do Orçamento da UE após 2013 e consequentes implicações para Portugal. Neste conjunto de documentos procura-se corresponder à solicitação do GT coordenado pela DGAE, sistematizando e parcialmente actualizando num lote de seis “cadernos” temáticos uma selecção de leituras técnicas extraídas dos trabalhos mais recentes do DPP. Esta selecção orientou-se para, sob diferentes ângulos, identificar o posicionamento de Portugal: (D)PP 1 – Enquadramento Externo e Desafios Estratégicos; (D)PP 2 – Convergência; (D)PP 3 – Crescimento Sustentado e Carteira de Actividades; (D)PP 4 – Território(s); (D)PP 5 – Ambiente e Desenvolvimento; (D)PP 6 – Qualificações, Trabalho e Coesão Social. Download:     573.43 Kb DPP Portugal Profiles. 2 – Convergence     [More +] Os DPP Portugal Profiles constituem uma contribuição do DPP para o Grupo de Trabalho responsável por reflectir sobre as possibilidades de evolução do Orçamento da UE após 2013 e consequentes implicações para Portugal. Neste conjunto de documentos procura-se corresponder à solicitação do GT coordenado pela DGAE, sistematizando e parcialmente actualizando num lote de seis “cadernos” temáticos uma selecção de leituras técnicas extraídas dos trabalhos mais recentes do DPP. Esta selecção orientou-se para, sob diferentes ângulos, identificar o posicionamento de Portugal: (D)PP 1 – Enquadramento Externo e Desafios Estratégicos; (D)PP 2 – Convergência; (D)PP 3 – Crescimento Sustentado e Carteira de Actividades; (D)PP 4 – Território(s); (D)PP 5 – Ambiente e Desenvolvimento; (D)PP 6 – Qualificações, Trabalho e Coesão Social. Download:     136.76 Kb DPP Portugal Profiles. 3 – Sustained Growth and Portfolio of Activities     [More +] Os DPP Portugal Profiles constituem uma contribuição do DPP para o Grupo de Trabalho responsável por reflectir sobre as possibilidades de evolução do Orçamento da UE após 2013 e consequentes implicações para Portugal. Neste conjunto de documentos procura-se corresponder à solicitação do GT coordenado pela DGAE, sistematizando e parcialmente actualizando num lote de seis “cadernos” temáticos uma selecção de leituras técnicas extraídas dos trabalhos mais recentes do DPP. Esta selecção orientou-se para, sob diferentes ângulos, identificar o posicionamento de Portugal: (D)PP 1 – Enquadramento Externo e Desafios Estratégicos; (D)PP 2 – Convergência; (D)PP 3 – Crescimento Sustentado e Carteira de Actividades; (D)PP 4 – Território(s); (D)PP 5 – Ambiente e Desenvolvimento; (D)PP 6 – Qualificações, Trabalho e Coesão Social. Download:     233.52 Kb DPP Portugal Profiles. 4 – Territory(ies)     [More +] Os DPP Portugal Profiles constituem uma contribuição do DPP para o Grupo de Trabalho responsável por reflectir sobre as possibilidades de evolução do Orçamento da UE após 2013 e consequentes implicações para Portugal. Neste conjunto de documentos procura-se corresponder à solicitação do GT coordenado pela DGAE, sistematizando e parcialmente actualizando num lote de seis “cadernos” temáticos uma selecção de leituras técnicas extraídas dos trabalhos mais recentes do DPP. Esta selecção orientou-se para, sob diferentes ângulos, identificar o posicionamento de Portugal: (D)PP 1 – Enquadramento Externo e Desafios Estratégicos; (D)PP 2 – Convergência; (D)PP 3 – Crescimento Sustentado e Carteira de Actividades; (D)PP 4 – Território(s); (D)PP 5 – Ambiente e Desenvolvimento; (D)PP 6 – Qualificações, Trabalho e Coesão Social. Download:     1409.04 Kb DPP Portugal Profiles. 5 – Environment and Development     [More +] Os DPP Portugal Profiles constituem uma contribuição do DPP para o Grupo de Trabalho responsável por reflectir sobre as possibilidades de evolução do Orçamento da UE após 2013 e consequentes implicações para Portugal. Neste conjunto de documentos procura-se corresponder à solicitação do GT coordenado pela DGAE, sistematizando e parcialmente actualizando num lote de seis “cadernos” temáticos uma selecção de leituras técnicas extraídas dos trabalhos mais recentes do DPP. Esta selecção orientou-se para, sob diferentes ângulos, identificar o posicionamento de Portugal: (D)PP 1 – Enquadramento Externo e Desafios Estratégicos; (D)PP 2 – Convergência; (D)PP 3 – Crescimento Sustentado e Carteira de Actividades; (D)PP 4 – Território(s); (D)PP 5 – Ambiente e Desenvolvimento; (D)PP 6 – Qualificações, Trabalho e Coesão Social. Download:     762.16 Kb DPP Portugal Profiles. 6 – Qualifications, Work and Social Cohesion     [More +] Os DPP Portugal Profiles constituem uma contribuição do DPP para o Grupo de Trabalho responsável por reflectir sobre as possibilidades de evolução do Orçamento da UE após 2013 e consequentes implicações para Portugal. Neste conjunto de documentos procura-se corresponder à solicitação do GT coordenado pela DGAE, sistematizando e parcialmente actualizando num lote de seis “cadernos” temáticos uma selecção de leituras técnicas extraídas dos trabalhos mais recentes do DPP. Esta selecção orientou-se para, sob diferentes ângulos, identificar o posicionamento de Portugal: (D)PP 1 – Enquadramento Externo e Desafios Estratégicos; (D)PP 2 – Convergência; (D)PP 3 – Crescimento Sustentado e Carteira de Actividades; (D)PP 4 – Território(s); (D)PP 5 – Ambiente e Desenvolvimento; (D)PP 6 – Qualificações, Trabalho e Coesão Social. Download:     161.57 Kb 2007 [More +] National Strategic Reference Framework 2007-2013. Ex-ante Evaluation (update)     [More +] The ex-ante report of the NSRF 2007-2013 for Portugal presents a portuguese economic evolution characterized by a retreat towards globalisation, a dynamics of spatial cohesion manaced by less competitiveness in the most exposed territories to international competition, internationally surrounded by competition and turbulence, that will difficult a sustainable growth. Based on this analysis strategic priorities are presented, that may be taken in account in a structural intervention programme for Portugal, horizon 2013, in the economic, social, environmental and spatial areas, realized in a way to be reinforced mutually. Download:     5924.25 Kb Tourism 2020. A Modular Foresight Process applied to Portugal     [More +] This working paper presents a Strategic Foresight process applied to the tourism sector in Portugal. Download:     1201.64 Kb The Macroeconomic Impact of EU Structural Funds on the Portuguese Economy     [More +] This presentation concerns the evaluation of the macroeconomic impact on the Portuguese economy of EU structural funds, framed by Community Support Frameworks (CSF) I, II and III for the period 1989-2006 and by National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) for the period 2007-2013, carried out in the Department of Foresight and Planning (DPP). Download:     281.01 Kb Portugal in the European Context: analysis of the apparent labour productivity trends     [More +] This document presents the main aspects of the trends in the evolution of the apparent labour productity in Portugal. Download:     1824.11 Kb Environment, Innovation and Economic Competitiveness     [More +] The main purpose of this article is to understand the role of environmental policies on productivity dynamics, competitiveness and on the innovation os economies as well as to evaluate the possibility to create and dynamize clusters of eco-industries in Portugal. Download:     8979.93 Kb Competitive and Innovative Cities for the Sustainable Development     [More +] The purpose of the present study is to put forward urban policy guidelines intended to develop the cities on competitive and sustainable bases in the global and knowledge economy. Download:     876.33 Kb Estimation of the Integrated System of input-output Tables for Portugal for 1996, 1997 and 1998, at 1999 prices     [More +] This document presents an Integrated System of input-output Tables at 1999 prices for the years 1996, 1997 and 1998 . Every system covers the total relationships at purchasing prices, national production at basic prices - taxes, subsidies, trade margins and imports tables. It is an input-output table product by product, according to P60 Nomenclature. The source is the resources and employment tables of the Statistical Institute and the system estimated in DPP for the years 1995 to 1999. Download:     1425.19 Kb DELPHI – Methodology and Applications     [More +] This working paper presents a brief historical introduction as well as an approach to Delphi methodology (2), refering the main principles, components and options of a process. Three cases are described: the Japanese Tecnology Foresight Surveys (the most refered) (3.1) and two european cases in the areas of energy and natural and technological risks (3.2.2). Download:     893.13 Kb Building Scenarios. The Global Business Network Methodology     [More +] The aim of this working paper is to present the methodology used by the Global Business Network (GBN) in Scenarios building. Download:     527.8 Kb Report on the Ex-ante Evaluation of Addicionality for 2007-2013     [More +] Report on the ex-ante verification of Addicionality for 2007-2013, conducted all through the drafting and definition of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF). At this stage was decided the level of eligible public or equivalent spending to be maintained all over the programming period. Download:     305.34 Kb Economic Growth Spaces     [More +] Download:     1956.55 Kb The Foresight French School in the Context of Futures Studies – From "Commission on the Year 2000" to Michel Godet Tools     [More +] Este documento pretende introduzir a temática da Prospectiva/Foresight e explorar alguns dos seus conceitos mais relevantes, bem como apresentar três módulos do Método Integrado de Prospectiva Estratégica de Michel Godet (análise estrutural – MICMAC, análise do jogo de actores – MACTOR e análise morfológica – MORPHOL). Download:     762.39 Kb A Macroeconometric Model for Portugal – MEGA – Version 7     [More +] MEGA is a macroeconometric annual dynamic model for the Portuguese economy, of keynesian inspiration, designed for short and medium-term forecasts and simulations. This paper presents the model’s 7th version, developed in 2006 using an updated data basis of long time-series (1958-2005) compatibilized with the 2000 basis of National Accounts. The model allows the simulation of GDP and its expenditure components, prices and wages, income of the various economic agents (households, firms and government), employment and unemployment, as well as public and external balances. The econometrically estimated equations were specified considering error correction mechanisms. Download:     135.81 Kb 2006 [More +] CSF contribution for the Objectives of Lisbon Strategy     [More +] The authors present an analysis of the contribution of the Portuguese public expenditure within the Community Support Frameworks for Portugal, the Community Initiatives and the Cohesion Fund for the realization of the Lisbon Strategy objectives, launched in 2000. Download:     325.58 Kb The Portuguese Economy Position towards the Objectives of Lisbon Strategy     [More +] In this document the authors present a systematisation of the essential political intervention areas of the Strategy designed in the European Council of 2000 and it was a support paper for the works carried on in 2004 and 2005. Download:     2066.77 Kb Economic Planning in Portugal 1953-1974. An historical collectiion     [More +] This publication presents the administrative documents as well as the reports and studies issued along the process of economic and social planning in Portugal, between 1953 and 1974. This documentation may be searched in the online database ARQUIVO HISTÓRICO (Historical Archive). Download:     2766.05 Kb HERPOR. A Macroeconometric Model for the Portuguese Economy     [More +] HERPOR is a macroeconometric model for the Portuguese economy developed in the Department of Foresight and Planning (DPP) with the purpose of evaluating the macroeconomic impact of EC structural fund interventions on the Portuguese economy. The model was built with the aim of considering both supply and demand side effects of Community funds in the short, medium and long term, in line with the European Commission recommendations regarding structural funds evaluation. The first version of HERPOR was completed in 2003. In 2005 the model was revised and updated in order to be used in the update of CSF III mid-term evaluation. Download:     827.57 Kb National Strategic Reference Framework 2007-2013. Ex-ante Evaluation Strategy (October 2006)     [More +] The ex-ante report of the NSRF 2007-2013 for Portugal presents a portuguese economic evolution characterized by a retreat towards globalisation, a dynamics of spatial cohesion manaced by less competitiveness in the most exposed territories to international competition, internationally surrounded by competition and turbulence, that will difficult a sustainable growth. Based on this analysis strategic priorities are presented, that may be taken in account in a structural intervention programme for Portugal, horizon 2013, in the economic, social, environmental and spatial areas, realized in a way to be reinforced mutually. Download:     2711.78 Kb Portugal in the European Context: Entrepreneurial Investment in the Tradable Sector     [More +] In the framework of the activities in the area of the positioning of the Portuguese economy in the European context, this report presents the characterization of the entrepreneurial investment in the tradable sector and an analysis of the Portuguese economy in the period 2001-2003. A statistical annex is also published. Download:     1330.73 Kb Contribution to an attractiveness enforcement policy and economic dynamism of the non-metropolitan urban axes     [More +] This report presents an approach to a brainstorming about opportunities and policies for the entrepreneurial development of non-metropolitan urban/spaces axes, as a support for the next operational programs. Those spaces development needs a qualitative increase in political terms, based on the principle that similar public goods and utilities in low and medium density territories are not enough to lead to a strong entrepreneurial development able to sustain those economies in market terms. Download:     2770.72 Kb The Programme of Investment and Development Expenditures of the Central Government (PIDDAC) in NSRF. Contribution Analysis of PIDDAC to the NSRF Strategic Priorities     [More +] Download:     1035.59 Kb Evaluation Indicators Panel     [More +] Download:     221.03 Kb Previous [2010-2006] [2005-2001] [2000-1996] [1995-1991] [1990-1986] Next | Webmaster | Privacy Police Copyright © 2007 DPP - All rights reserved. Developed by Softconcept©